Categorized | Fantasy Football

How to save a lost fantasy season

Posted on 23 October 2009 by Kevin

So, you got the top pick, drafted Adrian Peterson, coasted, and now you’re 1-5.

Or maybe you landed Tom Brady and Randy Moss in the first two rounds, had zero depth at running back, and are just now reaping the benefits from the Patriots connection.

There are hundreds of stories like these.

You have a wide receiver corps that is absolutely stacked, but you started the season 0-4 because you were depending on Brian Westbrook, Larry Johnson, Jonathan Stewart, and Matt Forte.

Big name guys, like it or not, can fail you. Your top draft picks, just like in real life, can be busts. Injuries happen. Trades happen.

But whether you’re 3-3 or 0-6, it’s not over yet. In standard leagues, you still have eight games left. And in most leagues, that means a 7-1 or 6-2 run would almost guarantee you the last spot in your league for the playoffs.

So, instead of throwing in the towel, what say we take a refresher course on how to be successful this year. How do we, with this roster, this team, this pool of free agents, win right now. Very simple. Just follow these rules:

1. Keep Your Focus

Mind-set has a ton to do with what happens in the next eight weeks. If you think your players suck, that no one on the waiver wire is usable, or that none of your players have match-ups that can be exploited, then you will lose.

Take control of your team (especially if you have money on the line), and stay active, and keep yourself focused. If you lost six straight games, there’s no reason why your fortunes can’t change and the next six go your way.

That is, unless Derek Anderson is your starting quarterback.

2. Make the No-Brainer Adjustments First

Like the aforementioned Anderson, for instance: Drop him.

Obviously this gets a little more complicated in deep leagues that carry to quarterbacks. If that’s the case, you’ll have to stick it out, but if you can afford to, you might want to add extra quarterback depth.

Example: The Patriots are playing a terrible Tampa Bay team in week seven. If the game gets even close to what happened last week against Tennessee (59-0), we’ll be seeing at least a whole quarter of Tom Brady’s back-up, Brian Hoyer.

Or like a few weeks ago, when The New York Giants were facing the Oakland Raiders, and you could be almost certain that you’d be seeing a solid quarter or two of David Carr.

It takes extra time and effort, as well as strategizing with your roster make-up, but what needs to be done should be done

3. Scour the Waiver Wire Relentlessly

Remember when Braylon Edwards was traded to the Jets? Yeah, before that happened, he was available in over 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Buy low on guys who are in slumps or are slowly progressing.

Example: Joey Galloway just got cut by the New England Patriots. This means more playing time and more targets for quarterback-turned-receiver, Julian Edelman.

Or look at the New York Jets. It may mean nothing, but they just signed the tiny, little-known Danny Woodhead from their practice squad, coverting the former running back to receiver.

If you keep yourself updates, you will find gems, and your roster will improve.

4. Become a Match-up Expert

Fancy yourself a fantastic fantasy decision-maker, but know less and less about the real game with every passing year? Well, knock it off.

It’s time to mix the two worlds and allow them to become one. Believe it or not, knowing that Minnesota will likely be without Antoine Winfield this week (and possibly longer) will help you in deciding your fantasy line-up.

It obviously raises Ben Roethlisberger’s value, as well as Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, and Heath Miller’s value.

But there is a thing such as the trickle effect. If those player are having success, there is a solid chance players down the line on that team will have solid numbers, as well.

Look for Mike Wallace to benefit immensely in that match-up.

You should also know which defenses almost always give up a ton of yards on the ground or through the air, as well as which one’s are widely known for stuffing the run and preventing it.

Unless you have Adrian Peterson or Maurice Jones-Drew, you may not want to start a running back against the Baltimore Ravens, Washington Redskins, or Minnesota Vikings.

And unless you have Andre Johnson or Reggie Wayne, you may not want to start your receiver if he’s facing the Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, or New York Jets.

It’s not just team defense that should be feared in the “pass defense” case. Which corner your receiver will likely be matched-up with can turn out to be a huge deal-breaker.

5. Take Calculated Risks

Don’t just start Michael Crabtree this week because he’s supposedly getting his first start and could “go off”. You need facts to back up your decision-making.

However, if you had to choose between him and a different under-whelming “safe” 9ers receiver, that’s not a bad risk to take.

I would start Crabtree over Isaac Bruce and Josh Morgan this week, for example.

6. The Wild Card: Swing a Trade That Benefits You

Every fantasy owner is waiting for your mediocre team to crumble under your ownership. They’re either waiting for you to cut solid players who are stuck in ruts, make a silly trade, or simply give-up.

You can’t do those things.

You can’t be desperate because you only have Marc Bulger and Derek Anderson to work with. Just because you don’t have a reliable quarterback does not mean you need to trade one of your good receivers and your best running back to get a mediocre quarterback like Matt Cassel or David Garrard.

There will be teams out there that are looking for small upgrades, and if they have three quarterbacks, their asking price won’t be too high.

You have time. Ask around. Don’t bite on the first trade offered to you. Because if they are offering it, nine time out of ten, they are winning in the trade.

There’s no such thing as a “good deal” unless you win. “One man’s trash is another man’s treasure” says it perfectly.

Find gems that can’t fail on other owner’s teams, and trade low, without risking too many of your high-caliber players.

7. The Final Rule

Fantasy Football is all about having fun, right? So, if two or three weeks after you try these steps/ideas/rules, and it for some reason still isn’t working, then I have one last piece of advice for you:

Play guys that you like.

Sick of watching Larry Johnson putter around aimlessly, Torry Holt not scoring touchdowns, or Mark Sanchez throwing picks?

Then pick-up or trade for homer players and at least have fun in your final 4-5 weeks. That is, unless you’re in a money league. Then you can start the crying.

If you need any more advice on trades, free agents, or roster suggestion, give me shout at kevin.roberts  [at] cuw.edu

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3 Comments For This Post

  1. nepenthe Says:

    I have 2 teams, one is 5-1 and winning for all the wrong reasons, the other 1-5 and not a bad team (and out-scoring the 5-1 team). for my 1-5 team, I can relate to these guidelines. #4 is a good one, but the best is #7. I’m almost there, trading for homers.

  2. Nevin Says:

    Any comment Chris? In the league I do with you there have been 3 or 4 games you have lost by only a handful of points. You sit at 4-5 which is not bad considering the rest of the league is 5-4. Anyway we all muddle through… Fantasy football is fun and nerve wracking. I am not in a money league I cannot do it… I suck. I have fun and unfortunately most of the time watch my fantasy team implode during the year.

    Remember no idea is too stupid but those damn bye weeks are killing me.

  3. Chris Says:

    It is tough to lose so many close games, especially when you when the ones you win you win big, but all you can do is stay the course. Being 4-5 is tough especially when you have the second highest point total in the league (second only to the team in first place) because it confirms that you have a good team, but you have had a tough schedule. I am happy with my team, but there are some changes that I will make to push for the playoffs.

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